Interaction Design Foundation
Free educational materials - made by the world's technology elite
 
Join us on Linkedin
Join us on Twitter
Join us on Google plus
Get our RSS Feed
 
 
ReferencesNavigation arrowAuthorsNavigation arrowBrian Bell
Jun 19

“ ... there are no simple 'right' answers for most web design questions (at least not for the important ones). What works is good, integrated design that fills a need--carefully thought out, well executed, and tested. ”

-- Steve Krug, Don't Make Me Think, p. 136

 
 

Featured chapter

Read the fascinating history of Wearable Computing, told by its father, Steve Mann

Read Steve's chapter !

 
 

Latest books

The Social Design of Technical Systems: Building technologies for communities
by Brian Whitworth and Adnan Ahmad

 
Start reading

The Encyclopedia of Human-Computer Interaction, 2nd Ed.
by Mads Soegaard and Rikke Friis Dam

 
Start reading
 
 

Help us help you!

 
 

Brian Bell

Picture of Brian Bell. Copyright unknown.
Add description
Add publication

Publications by Brian Bell (bibliography)

 what's this?
1991
 
Edit | Del

Wickens, Christopher D., Pizarro, David and Bell, Brian (1991): Overconfidence, Preview, and Probability in Strategic Planning. In: Proceedings of the Human Factors Society 35th Annual Meeting 1991. pp. 1556-1560.

“This study examined biases, sources of difficulty and display support in strategic planning. Eight subjects performed a strategic planning "rescue" video game, which required them to make a series of choices regarding which node to "fly to" in order to rescue simulated casualties. After making each choice, subjects needed to fly a challenging tracking dynamics along a path to reach the next "node" in the decision space where the casualties were "rescued." The dynamics along each path could be at one of four levels of difficulty. The difficulty determined the probability that the corridor would be flown successfully and therefore casualties rescued at the other end. To maximize their score, subjects had to consider the number of casualties at each node, the length of the path to the node (the shorter the better), and the probability they would fly the path successfully (an estimate of their own performance based on past experience). Periodically subjects were asked to give explicit estimates of those probabilities, such data provided in order for us to evaluate the calibration of estimated with true probability of success. Half the flights were flown with restricted preview of only the two nodes of the immediate choice. The other half offered full preview of the whole map. The results revealed that (a) subjects' decisions were less optimal when full preview was offered, (b) this deficiency appeared to result because full preview led subjects to rely too much on the simple strategy of choosing routes with most casualties, and neglecting the use of more abstract probability values in guiding their choices, (c) subjects appeared to be well calibrated in their confidence of traversing paths correctly.”

© All rights reserved Wickens et al. and/or Human Factors Society

 
Add publication
Show list on your website
 
 

Join the technology elite and advance:

 
1.

Your career

 
2.

Your network

 
 3.

Your skills

 
 
 
 
 
 

Changes to this page (author)

26 Jun 2007: Added

Page Information

Page maintainer: The Editorial Team
URL: http://www.interaction-design.org/references/authors/brian_bell.html
Jun 19

“ ... there are no simple 'right' answers for most web design questions (at least not for the important ones). What works is good, integrated design that fills a need--carefully thought out, well executed, and tested. ”

-- Steve Krug, Don't Make Me Think, p. 136

 
 

Featured chapter

Read the fascinating history of Wearable Computing, told by its father, Steve Mann

Read Steve's chapter !

 
 

Latest books

The Social Design of Technical Systems: Building technologies for communities
by Brian Whitworth and Adnan Ahmad

 
Start reading

The Encyclopedia of Human-Computer Interaction, 2nd Ed.
by Mads Soegaard and Rikke Friis Dam

 
Start reading
 
 

Help us help you!

 
 
 
 
About | Press kit / Media kit | Copyright/IP Policy | General Terms of Use / General Site Terms and Conditions | Privacy Policy

How to help | Site Map

RSS Subscribe through an RSS feed
 
.