Number of co-authors:23
Number of publications with 3 favourite co-authors:Jennifer Tsai:3Sarah Miller:2Kenyon Riddle:2
Alex Kirlik's 3 most productive colleagues in number of publications:Arthur D. Fisk:35Michael D. Byrne:22Neff Walker:19
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-- Paul Rand, 1997
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Publications by Alex Kirlik (bibliography)
Riddle, Kenyon, Kirlik, Alex, Talleur, Donald, Carbonari, Ronald, Zhang, Yijing, Holbrook, Jon, Byrne, Michael, Bauer, David and Beard, Bettina (2012): A Comparison of Visualization and Command-Based Decision Aiding in a Simulated Aircraft Departure Sequencing Task. In: Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 2012 Annual Meeting 2012. pp. 233-237.
Three versions of a prototype ground controller interface were tested for their effect on aircraft departure sequencing in a simulation of Dallas/Forth-Worth International Airport. Two versions featured automated decision aids and a third served as a baseline with no decision aid. The two decision aids performed fundamentally different functions, with a Temporal Constraint Visualization (TCV) providing a visualization of spatiotemporal constraints on the departure sequence and a Timeline display providing release sequences derived by an optimization algorithm. Results indicate that participants in the TCV condition had more efficient departure sequences than the Baseline and Timeline conditions. No significant differences were found between conditions for timeliness of departures or handling of arrival aircraft. These results indicate that, through the use of appropriate decision aids, task performance in complex dynamic environments can be improved with humans retaining full decision making control. Additional research is warranted to investigate situation awareness and failure mode performance using these decision aid types.
© All rights reserved Riddle et al. and/or Human Factors and Ergonomics Society
Tsai, Jennifer and Kirlik, Alex (2012): Coherence and Correspondence Competence: Implications for Elicitation and Aggregation of Probabilistic Forecasts of World Events. In: Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 2012 Annual Meeting 2012. pp. 313-317.
One potentially useful concept that arises in the elicitation and aggregation of probabilistic forecasts is Hammond's (1996) distinction between coherence and correspondence. A study was conducted to test the commonly held assumption that coherence competency, a judge's ability to reason correctly according to the prescriptions demanded by the problem, directly yields correspondence competency, a judge's ability to predict the outcome that actually happens in the external world. The role of a visualization aid in terms of moderating these effects was also examined. Participants who were knowledgeable baseball fans predicted the probability with which their favored team would win the 2011 Major League Baseball World Series, giving a prior probability shortly before the start of the Series, and then sequentially updating their answer as the individual games unfolded over time. Results show that for participants using the visualization, their ability to update probabilities according to the dictates of Bayes' Theorem was correlated with their ability to predict the winner of the 2011 MLB Series -- a desirable property that allows for estimation of judges' outcome performance based on more readily available process information.
© All rights reserved Tsai and Kirlik and/or Human Factors and Ergonomics Society
Miller, Sarah, Kirlik, Alex and Hendren, Nathan (2011): Applying Knowledge and Confidence Information to Predict Achievement in Forecasting. In: Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 55th Annual Meeting 2011. pp. 370-374.
In this paper, we explore the relationship between confidence and basic knowledge information collected prior to a forecast and forecast performance (i.e. achievement). Forecasters were asked at the beginning of the 2008 Major League Baseball season to predict end-of-year performance in five statistical categories for both hitters and pitchers. At the time of the initial forecast, participants were asked to rate the confidence in their forecast (0-100 scale) and were asked simple knowledge-based questions related to the player they were making forecasts about (e.g. player position and team). A regression analysis was used to compare the participant's performance on the statistical categories with their knowledge and confidence. In general, there was a significant relationship between performance in the statistical categories and both knowledge and confidence when compared individually. However, given both confidence and knowledge, confidence provides no additional significant information.
© All rights reserved Miller et al. and/or HFES
Tsai, Jennifer, Miller, Sarah and Kirlik, Alex (2011): Interactive Visualizations to Improve Bayesian Reasoning. In: Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 55th Annual Meeting 2011. pp. 385-389.
Proper Bayesian reasoning is critical in a variety of domains that require practitioners to make predictions about the probability of events contingent upon earlier actions or events. However, much research on judgment has shown that people who are unfamiliar with Bayes' Theorem often reason quite poorly with conditional probabilities due to various cognitive biases. Owing to previous successes of visualization techniques for debiasing judges and improving judgment performance, we created an interactive computer visualization designed to aid Bayes-na´ve people in solving conditional probability problems that would not require a training period to use, and would be flexible enough to accommodate many problem types. Results are suggestive that participants using our interactive visualization were able to substantially improve their Bayesian reasoning performance above that of previous debiasing methods. This finding has significant implications for expanding the toolbox of techniques that can be used to more accurately elicit predictions and forecasts from judges whose expertise lies beyond the realm of statistics.
© All rights reserved Tsai et al. and/or HFES
Zemla, Jeffrey C., Ustun, Volkan, Byrne, Michael D., Kirlik, Alex, Riddle, Kenyon and Alexander, Amy L. (2011): An ACT-R Model of Commercial Jetliner Taxiing. In: Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 55th Annual Meeting 2011. pp. 831-835.
The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) seeks to reduce gridlock at airports by, among other things, creating a more efficient surface taxi management system. Addressing this situation creates a difficult evaluation problem; how can new scheduling methods be tested? Present methods generally involve either expensive human-in-the-loop experiments or computer simulations that do not adequately represent the human component of system performance. We have developed an ACT-R model of commercial jetliner taxiing with the ultimate goal of aiding in both of these efforts. The X-Plane commercial flight simulation package provides an environment in which the model can act. That environment is populated with aircraft driven by recordings taken of real aircraft at Dallas-Fort Worth airport, which contain the actual positions of all aircraft on the taxi surface for a given time slice. This also provides us with a rich source of data for model validation, as the model can "replace" one actual aircraft, allowing comparisons between model-generated and pilot-generated trajectories.
© All rights reserved Zemla et al. and/or HFES
Tsai, Jennifer and Kirlik, Alex (2009): Expert Judgment in a Heterogeneous Task Environment. In: Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 53rd Annual Meeting 2009. pp. 232-236.
Recent times have seen an explosion of research on the intersection between rules, models, heuristics, and ecological task structure. Many groups have worked to connect loose strategies and findings into a more cohesive theory of judgment, specifying the particular ecologies under which various strategies work well or not. However, the majority of this research has been conducted under the assumption that judgment environments are homogeneous in composition. This paper reports an experiment in which the judgment task of interest possesses a heterogeneous structure, with different subsets of the task environment governed by different rules or weighting functions. Results reveal that experts were able to perform the task well by taking advantage of the heterogeneous nature of the task ecology, selectively choosing and adapting their use of strategies according to how well each operates in the different sub-ecologies of the task environment. Implications for understanding and supporting expert judgment in operational contexts are discussed.
© All rights reserved Tsai and Kirlik and/or their publisher
Kirlik, Alex (2007): Conceptual and Technical Issues in Extending Computational Cognitive Modeling to Aviation. In: Jacko, Julie A. (ed.) HCI International 2007 - 12th International Conference - Part I July 22-27, 2007, Beijing, China. pp. 872-881.
Kirlik, Alex (ed.) (2006): Adaptive perspectives on human-technology interaction : methods and models for cognitive engineering and human-computer interaction. Oxford University Press
Kramer, Arthur F., Wiegman, Douglas A. and Kirlik, Alex (2006): Attention: From theory to practice. New York, Oxford University Press
Walker, Neff, Fisk, Arthur D., Phipps, Donita and Kirlik, Alex (1994): Training Perceptual-Rule Based Skills. In: Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 38th Annual Meeting 1994. pp. 1178-1182.
The results of an experiment are discussed that address how best to train perceptual-rule based skills within a domain where rules correlate to perceptual aspects of a dynamic evolving environment. Participants performed the role of football quarterback where the object of the task was to learn to identify the correct pass receiver in a simulated football system. The correct receiver could always be specified by a set of rules or subtle perceptual cues. Subjects were assigned to one of four training groups which were constructed by complete crossing of rule versus no rule learning and visual enhancement training versus no visual enhancement training. After training trials all subjects transferred to new plays in which new rules or perceptual cues were required. Transfer performance was superior for the participants who received the visually enhanced training. These results are discussed in light of theories of part-task training.
© All rights reserved Walker et al. and/or Human Factors Society
Keifer, Kellie S., Lanham, Jennifer S., Kirlik, Alex and Shively, R. Jay (1992): Star Cruiser: A Laboratory Task for Investigating Dynamic Decision Making. In: Proceedings of the Human Factors Society 36th Annual Meeting 1992. p. 1046.
Star Cruiser is a complex laboratory task that was designed to study decision making processes. It is intended to provide a rich perceptual environment in which to study the perceptual decision heuristics utilized by operators in similar tasks (Shively&Kirlik, 1991, Kirlik, Markert&Shively, 1990). In addition, a great deal of flexibility is offered by its script-style control. Researchers interested in such areas as workload, situational awareness, and skill development may also find it useful. It is presently being utilized in laboratories at NASA-Ames and Georgia Tech, where it was jointly developed, but the software is now available for distribution to other interested laboratories.
© All rights reserved Keifer et al. and/or Human Factors Society
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